Teema 4. Review of report from by Pekka Himanen to Finnish Parliament named “CHALLENGES OF THE GLOBAL INFORMATION SOCIETY 2004”

The report itself can be found on this link:

https://web.archive.org/web/20170221105053/https://www.eduskunta.fi/FI/tietoaeduskunnasta/julkaisut/Documents/tuvje_1+2004.pdf

Indeed the Finnish philosopher Pekka Himanen has a quite solid approach to this work and he brought quite wide aspects of society into his review. However i cannot help but notice that his approach lacks one very important aspect - realities and implications of those challenges to real life are left almost unattended. Philosopher writes for politicians, what sense of reality are you waiting for? From which of those two?



All right, we are not in 2020, so let's have a look at what has changed since 2004.



Himanen list following main global trends that will affect us in the next 20 years.

1. Increasing international tax competition

2. The new global division of labour

3. Population ageing

4. Increasing pressures on the welfare society

5. The second phase of the information society

6. The rise of cultural industries

7. The rise of bio-industries

8. Regional concentration

9. A deepening global divide

10. The spread of a “culture of emergency”



Lets review these trends.

International tax competition for investments and skilled labour.


Now in 2020 we face a situation where money is cheap and skilled labour is scarce and valuable. Cheap money means that Banks have ability to borrow capital at very low interest rates from Central banks. At the same time banks have very low number of options where Borrower is willing to pay high interest. So i would say that countries are not competing for attracting capital, there is plenty of it.


But the situation with highly skilled labour is reversed. Highly skilled labour is valuable, needed and scarce. For example, the main driver for property prices rise in Estonia in recent years is the continuous growth of average salary levels driven by IT industry well developed in Estonia. But number of people our country can produce, however smart we are, is very limited, and we already saw how big international business chose Lithuania for its massive hubs in Europe where competition for talent is somewhat less.




The new global division of labour


In this trend Himanen points out US and EU as regions with large proportion of creative work and countries of BRICS (Briazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are designated as developed countries mostly target markets for consuming good produced (or rather “created”) by developed countries. While this is a macroeconomic trend and normally these take decades to develop and are very slow to turn, we already see a change to the situation observed by Himanen in 2004. International division of labour is ending. China is aiming to create own middle-class to consume goods produced by Chinese factories and pay for it. Many developing countries also aiming to stop foreign goods from coming and supporting local manufacturers who will pay wages to local people and thus support local economy.


So i would say that the real world have already changed from the state described by Himanen 16 years ago.


Population aging


This trend is not about to reverse. We are where we are with this, however longer living for elderly also meaning longer productiveness age for them. I certainly do intend to be productive until very late age. As observed by many studies,idleness kills faster than illnesses.


All true with this one.


Increasing pressures on the welfare society


This is self-imagined problem. Welfare society is a dream and not even good one. Welfare is a must for a people who are in need of it for medical reasons. But to setup the culture of “welfare society” is to allow laziness and idleness, which inevitably leads to less productiveness and early deaths.


The second phase of the information society


I am afraid that this phase have indeed started, but not even that sure that humans will benefit from this stage. Well some humans will benefit for sure, but not the society as a whole. Most what is observed now is how easily manipulative our societies have become, by media and news hysterics (“coronavirus-we-are-all-going-to-die-pandemic”)


The rise of cultural industries


Convergence of different media types into larger business conglomerates is certainly an ongoing process.


 The rise of bio-industries


Yes, this is is the long term trend and is happening and will continue into the future. A bit sad that it is driven by shameless moneygrabbing pharma business, who even try to justify its behavior: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/business/martin-shkreli-the-bad-boy-of-pharmaceuticals-hits-back.html


Regional concentration


Yes, this is still an existing trend, although already picked up by urbanists and trying to make the bast out of it by turning urban landscapes into greenish environments.


A deepening global divide


This trend was already addressed by points described in Trend nr2 “Global division of labour”. Countries designated by “developed world” to be poor and serve only as consumers are not entirely agree with this fate and making active steps to change the situation. As history shows us these changes do not happen peacefully.


The spread of a “culture of emergency”


Not clear on that one. Risks are ever-present in every society and one cannot say that production of a wheel 2000 years ago was less risky or stressful than programming a code in 21 century cubicle.